Friday, December 30, 2005
AU Preview: Capital One Bowl
#7 Auburn faces #21 Wisconsin in this year's Capital One Bowl in Orlando, FL. The game is scheduled for 12:00pm central time on Monday, Jan 2 on ABC. Other than the obvious underdog angle, the story of this game is the last game of Wisconsin's head coach for the last 16 years, Barry Alvarez. ESPN.com was kind enough to do game previews for the bowls that aren't nearly as half-assed as their coverage was during the season, so here is some of their insight.
ESPN breaks down how each team matches up on a position-by-position basis. They give Wisconsin the edge at QB, RB, and coaching, the last of which is likely due to the "emotional farewell" angle. Auburn is given the edge at WR, OL, DL, LB, DB, special teams, and "overall."
Auburn Defense vs Wisconsin Offense
As you could probably tell from the positional comparisons above, Wisconsin has an excellent running back in Brian Calhoun. Calhoun shows good burst through the hole, has the lateral mobility to bounce outside, and he is an elusive open-field runner. While the Badgers run out of a number of different schemes, they frequently line up with two backs in the I-formation. The reason is that Calhoun has good vision, and he does a good job of making cuts off his lead blockers. However, Calhoun will have his work cut out for him against an Auburn run defense that is giving up just 3.2 yards per carry. The Tigers' interior defensive line does a good job of clogging up the middle and their rangy linebackers make plays all over the field.
Wisconsin QB John Stucco is mainly capable of taking advantage of teams that stack 8 or 9 men up front against the run, so stopping Calhoun early could crush Wisconsin's offensive schemes cold.
Auburn Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
Auburn will come out running the ball in an effort to keep Wisconsin's front seven on its heels and set up the play action package for QB Brandon Cox. That means RB Kenny Irons will have an excellent opportunity to extend his streak of consecutive 100-yard rushing games to seven. Irons doesn't have ideal size or lower body strength, but he is a determined runner that fights for yards after contact. Also, he is always a threat to make a big play. That doesn't bode well for Badgers' fans because Wisconsin's run defense is giving up an average of 4.8 yards per carry.
Although the Tigers run more than they throw, they have talent at wide receiver. Devin Aromashodu has the speed to stretch defenses, Ben Obomanu is a reliable possession-receiver and the size of Anthony Mix causes matchup problems. The Badgers don't have the personnel at corner to match up, which means Cox should be able to find an open man, given enough time. That being said the Badgers have intercepted 15 passes. Cox, who is somewhat inconsistent, must make sound decisions and avoid throwing into tight coverage consequently.
Special Teams
Wisconsin PR Brandon Williams has returned two punts for touchdowns and he is a dangerous open-field runner. If there are any breakdowns in Auburn's punt cover unit, Williams is capable of giving the Badgers quality starting field position or even points. PK Taylor Mehlhaff has connected on 13 of his 17 field goal attempts but two of those misses came from beyond 50 yards. He has been accurate on field goal attempts inside 40 yards and he has good range. P Ken DeBauche has been impressive. He is averaging 44.8 yards per punt and he has placed 21 of his 54 punts inside the opponents' 20-yard line.
Tigers PK John Vaughn has connected on just 11 of his 19 field goal attempts and he has yet to connect on a field goal attempt outside 40 yards. P Kody Bliss is averaging 44.8 yards per punt and he has placed 11 of his 38 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
ESPN's "Scout's Edge":
This is Barry Alvarez's last game as the head coach at Wisconsin so the Badgers will play with a lot of emotion. That and their commitment to the run will help keep the score close. However, it won't be enough to get the win. Auburn's run defense is stout enough to slow Calhoun down and put Stocco in plenty of situations with pass-heavy tendencies. The Tigers should be able to establish a productive ground attack because Irons will be working against a Wisconsin run defense that has struggled all year. With Irons keeping their Badgers on their heels and consistently picking up positive yards, Cox won't have to make many big plays with his arm.
Prediction: Auburn 34, Wisconsin 21
Jason's Notes
If Wisconsin's run defense is as vulnerable as ESPN indicates, and their QB is only able to beat teams when the run game is going for the Badgers, I have trouble seeing Wisconsin scoring many points against Auburn. I would expect Auburn to take an early lead on the back of Kenny Irons, as long as Cox can avoid throwing INTs against the Wisconsin secondary. Of course, even if Auburn takes the early lead, the game will likely still wind up being close due to Auburn's annoying tendency to play conservatively on offense with a big lead. The only way Auburn looks vulnerable in this game is if Brandon Cox makes several key mistakes that lead to turnovers. Otherwise, Auburn's defense and Kenny Irons should win the game handily.
Jason's Prediction: Auburn 27, Wisconsin 10
ESPN breaks down how each team matches up on a position-by-position basis. They give Wisconsin the edge at QB, RB, and coaching, the last of which is likely due to the "emotional farewell" angle. Auburn is given the edge at WR, OL, DL, LB, DB, special teams, and "overall."
Auburn Defense vs Wisconsin Offense
As you could probably tell from the positional comparisons above, Wisconsin has an excellent running back in Brian Calhoun. Calhoun shows good burst through the hole, has the lateral mobility to bounce outside, and he is an elusive open-field runner. While the Badgers run out of a number of different schemes, they frequently line up with two backs in the I-formation. The reason is that Calhoun has good vision, and he does a good job of making cuts off his lead blockers. However, Calhoun will have his work cut out for him against an Auburn run defense that is giving up just 3.2 yards per carry. The Tigers' interior defensive line does a good job of clogging up the middle and their rangy linebackers make plays all over the field.
Wisconsin QB John Stucco is mainly capable of taking advantage of teams that stack 8 or 9 men up front against the run, so stopping Calhoun early could crush Wisconsin's offensive schemes cold.
Auburn Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
Auburn will come out running the ball in an effort to keep Wisconsin's front seven on its heels and set up the play action package for QB Brandon Cox. That means RB Kenny Irons will have an excellent opportunity to extend his streak of consecutive 100-yard rushing games to seven. Irons doesn't have ideal size or lower body strength, but he is a determined runner that fights for yards after contact. Also, he is always a threat to make a big play. That doesn't bode well for Badgers' fans because Wisconsin's run defense is giving up an average of 4.8 yards per carry.
Although the Tigers run more than they throw, they have talent at wide receiver. Devin Aromashodu has the speed to stretch defenses, Ben Obomanu is a reliable possession-receiver and the size of Anthony Mix causes matchup problems. The Badgers don't have the personnel at corner to match up, which means Cox should be able to find an open man, given enough time. That being said the Badgers have intercepted 15 passes. Cox, who is somewhat inconsistent, must make sound decisions and avoid throwing into tight coverage consequently.
Special Teams
Wisconsin PR Brandon Williams has returned two punts for touchdowns and he is a dangerous open-field runner. If there are any breakdowns in Auburn's punt cover unit, Williams is capable of giving the Badgers quality starting field position or even points. PK Taylor Mehlhaff has connected on 13 of his 17 field goal attempts but two of those misses came from beyond 50 yards. He has been accurate on field goal attempts inside 40 yards and he has good range. P Ken DeBauche has been impressive. He is averaging 44.8 yards per punt and he has placed 21 of his 54 punts inside the opponents' 20-yard line.
Tigers PK John Vaughn has connected on just 11 of his 19 field goal attempts and he has yet to connect on a field goal attempt outside 40 yards. P Kody Bliss is averaging 44.8 yards per punt and he has placed 11 of his 38 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
ESPN's "Scout's Edge":
This is Barry Alvarez's last game as the head coach at Wisconsin so the Badgers will play with a lot of emotion. That and their commitment to the run will help keep the score close. However, it won't be enough to get the win. Auburn's run defense is stout enough to slow Calhoun down and put Stocco in plenty of situations with pass-heavy tendencies. The Tigers should be able to establish a productive ground attack because Irons will be working against a Wisconsin run defense that has struggled all year. With Irons keeping their Badgers on their heels and consistently picking up positive yards, Cox won't have to make many big plays with his arm.
Prediction: Auburn 34, Wisconsin 21
Jason's Notes
If Wisconsin's run defense is as vulnerable as ESPN indicates, and their QB is only able to beat teams when the run game is going for the Badgers, I have trouble seeing Wisconsin scoring many points against Auburn. I would expect Auburn to take an early lead on the back of Kenny Irons, as long as Cox can avoid throwing INTs against the Wisconsin secondary. Of course, even if Auburn takes the early lead, the game will likely still wind up being close due to Auburn's annoying tendency to play conservatively on offense with a big lead. The only way Auburn looks vulnerable in this game is if Brandon Cox makes several key mistakes that lead to turnovers. Otherwise, Auburn's defense and Kenny Irons should win the game handily.
Jason's Prediction: Auburn 27, Wisconsin 10
