Monday, January 03, 2005
HOW SWEET IT IS.
The 2004-05 Auburn Tigers are now 13-0. I believe we have earned a national title, and I still have hope that either the AP or the NY Times will recognize the accomplishment of surviving the SEC and the Sugar Bowl unbeaten and untied.
Nicole and I spent a few minutes at Toomer's Corner tonight, and the old familiar chant rings true.
IT'S GREAT TO BE AN AUBURN TIGER.
UPDATE: Rather than fill the "comments" page with a multi-part addendum, I'd rather take a moment here to make a couple comments on the arguments against a split title.
While listening to the AU Network broadcast, I saw two pertinent graphics on ABC:
- The AP, Coaches, and computer polls that all have AU ranked #3.
- The non-conference schedules of the three top teams.
The former is a circular argument, that Auburn is ranked #3 because they should be, and they should be because they are. The latter makes the foolish assumption that in-conference play doesn't matter, that the major BCS conferences are created equal.
Phooey, I say.
Auburn emerged from the SEC championship game 12-0. If you believe that ours is the nation's toughest conference, then that accomplishment and the subsequent bowl victory merits at least a split title.
If you believe the conference is weak this year, ask yourself whether it's because AU is at the top of the heap. If AU's undefeated season is proof of a weak SEC, just what could Auburn possibly do to win a national title? I sincerely believe some people will frame any outcome against Auburn: to them, this close game tonight means that AU is overrated, but a blowout would have meant that it was a victory against an overrated opponent. It's the Kobayashi Maru, and people who do that can fornicate themselves with an iron rod.
If Auburn's position as the 13-0 SEC Champs isn't enough, consider these stats.
Even after the Orange Bowl, USC or OU will have beaten only two top-10 teams.
Regardless of the outcome of the Orange Bowl, Auburn will have the most victories against teams with 9+ wins.
Would I have loved our last three victories to have been more decisive? Of course, but at least they were not controversial victories, like USC's wins against Virginia Tech and UCLA. Regardless, I don't think it matters: we have done all that is required in this screwed-up division of I-A college football to merit a share of the national title.
Nicole and I spent a few minutes at Toomer's Corner tonight, and the old familiar chant rings true.
IT'S GREAT TO BE AN AUBURN TIGER.
UPDATE: Rather than fill the "comments" page with a multi-part addendum, I'd rather take a moment here to make a couple comments on the arguments against a split title.
While listening to the AU Network broadcast, I saw two pertinent graphics on ABC:
- The AP, Coaches, and computer polls that all have AU ranked #3.
- The non-conference schedules of the three top teams.
The former is a circular argument, that Auburn is ranked #3 because they should be, and they should be because they are. The latter makes the foolish assumption that in-conference play doesn't matter, that the major BCS conferences are created equal.
Phooey, I say.
Auburn emerged from the SEC championship game 12-0. If you believe that ours is the nation's toughest conference, then that accomplishment and the subsequent bowl victory merits at least a split title.
If you believe the conference is weak this year, ask yourself whether it's because AU is at the top of the heap. If AU's undefeated season is proof of a weak SEC, just what could Auburn possibly do to win a national title? I sincerely believe some people will frame any outcome against Auburn: to them, this close game tonight means that AU is overrated, but a blowout would have meant that it was a victory against an overrated opponent. It's the Kobayashi Maru, and people who do that can fornicate themselves with an iron rod.
If Auburn's position as the 13-0 SEC Champs isn't enough, consider these stats.
Number of victories against then-top-10 teams:
USC: 1 (Cal)
OU: 1 (Texas)
AU: 4 (LSU, UT, UGA, VT)
Even after the Orange Bowl, USC or OU will have beaten only two top-10 teams.
Number of victories against teams with 9 or more wins:
USC: 3 (VT, Cal, Arizona St)
OU: 2 (Bowling Green, Texas)
AU: 5 (LSU, UT, UGA, UT, VT)
Regardless of the outcome of the Orange Bowl, Auburn will have the most victories against teams with 9+ wins.
Would I have loved our last three victories to have been more decisive? Of course, but at least they were not controversial victories, like USC's wins against Virginia Tech and UCLA. Regardless, I don't think it matters: we have done all that is required in this screwed-up division of I-A college football to merit a share of the national title.
AU Preview: Sugar Bowl vs. Virginia Tech
Better late than never, right?
ESPN's Excessively Long Take (Abridged)
When Auburn has the ball
Auburn run offense vs. VT run defense
Auburn has a huge size edge over VT at the line. VT's defense has overcome their lack of size on the defensive line by playing lots of 8-man fronts against the run this season. The depth of Auburn's WR corps and Ronnie Brown's catching ability should force the VT defense to spread out and allow Auburn's offensive line to absolutely dominate VT's defensive line.
Advantage: Auburn
Auburn pass offense vs. VT's pass defense
VT ranks third nationally in pass efficiency defense. That stat means nothing to me, either. I read it as "opposing QBs have combined for the 3rd lowest efficiency rating against the VT defense." VT's defense relies on pressuring the QB, as they have gotten 32 sacks from 12 different players this season. Virginia Tech can get away with this due to their talented defensive secondary. The blitz schemes of VT will be matched against Auburn's highly effective offensive line that has only allowed 16 sacks in 12 games this season.
Auburn lacks an elite WR to match up against VT's top CBs, Eric Green and Jimmy Williams. However, Auburn's spread formations should create some mismatches with Auburn's 3rd and 4th WRs (Mix and Obomanu, depending on how they are lined up) against VT's FS and Nickel CB. The question is whether or not Campbell will have enough time in the pocket to take advantage of them.
Advantage: Virginia Tech
When Virginia Tech has the ball
Virginia Tech run offense vs. Auburn run defense
Auburn's 1st quarter offense (outscored opponents 123-19 in the quarter) has prevented most of their opponents from being able to commit to the running game. VT's best advantage in this game is their size on the offensive line that will face Auburn's speed on the defensive line. Auburn also has a very athletic LB corps led by Travis Williams and Antarrious Williams.
VT will have to try to run the ball against the middle of Auburn's defense with QB Bryan Randall and RB Mike Imoh. VT likes to use many Shotgun read-option running plays where Randall decides whether to give the ball to Imoh or keep it himself at the last moment. Virginia Tech needs to get at least 40 carries and 200 yards on the ground to have a good chance in this game.
Advantage: Auburn
Virginia Tech pass offense vs. Auburn pass defense
Virginia Tech's pass offense is based more on pure efficiency to complement the running game than it is on going down the field. QB Bryan Randall averages only 22.3 pass attemps per game, but has 19 TDs compared to only 7 INTs. Randall's athletic ability will be vital against a swarming Auburn defense that has 35 sacks on the season. VT's freshman WRs Eddie Royal and Josh Hyman have become progressively more effective weapons for Randall as the season has progressed.
The ability of Auburn's defensive front (28.5 of the 35 team sacks are from the DL) to generate pressure gives Auburn a distinct advantage in this aspect of the game. Auburn CB Carlos Rogers can erase either Royal or Hyman from the game. This allows Auburn's defensive coordinator, Gene Chizik, to roll coverage to help out CB Montavis Pitts against the other WR. Auburn's LBs are also quite skilled at TE and RB pass coverage, so VT will have problems passing the ball in this game.
Advantage: Auburn
Special Teams
Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer has a reputation for always having teams that are extraordinarily good on special teams. This year has been the exception, with an average punting and kick return game, and only one blocked punt all year. The lone bright spot is kicker Brandon Pace who is 21-for-26 on field goal attempts.
Auburn's special teams have been much more consistent this year, with Carnell Williams and Aromashodu 29th in the nation in kick returns, Williams averaging 11.7 yards per punt return, punter Kody Bliss landing 16/43 punts inside the opponent's 20 yard line, and John Vaughn going 9-for-12 on FGs since winning the job from Philip Yost, who is still a good kickoff man.
Advantage: Auburn
ESPN's Prediction: Auburn 27, Virginia Tech 17
Jason's Notes
The thing that worries me most about this game is the one-month layoff for both teams. The bowl games I've watched so far this season have illustrated just how sloppy some teams that are usually fundamentally sound can play. Auburn and Virginia Tech are pretty evenly matched talent-wise in most areas except the passing game, and I think Auburn has the coaching edge as well. That edge could be the difference between being ready and being rusty. As long as Auburn does not come out and play sloppy football (like they did in the Iron Bowl) with penalties, dropped passes, and turnovers. If the team has not been dwelling on the disappointment of not making the Orange Bowl, Auburn should win this game handily.
Jason's Prediction: Auburn 24, Virginia Tech 3
The game is on ABC at 7PM CST tonight.
As for any discussion of earning a piece of the National Title, it seems that Auburn needs to play a nearly flawless game, and the USC-Oklahoma game tomorrow night at 7 needs to be the Rusty Bowl, with a messy showing from both teams. If the Associated Press decides to give Auburn their collective vote for #1 to spite the BCS, as opposed to based on merit, it's hard to even attempt to analyze what will or will not impress them.
ESPN's Excessively Long Take (Abridged)
When Auburn has the ball
Auburn run offense vs. VT run defense
Auburn has a huge size edge over VT at the line. VT's defense has overcome their lack of size on the defensive line by playing lots of 8-man fronts against the run this season. The depth of Auburn's WR corps and Ronnie Brown's catching ability should force the VT defense to spread out and allow Auburn's offensive line to absolutely dominate VT's defensive line.
Advantage: Auburn
Auburn pass offense vs. VT's pass defense
VT ranks third nationally in pass efficiency defense. That stat means nothing to me, either. I read it as "opposing QBs have combined for the 3rd lowest efficiency rating against the VT defense." VT's defense relies on pressuring the QB, as they have gotten 32 sacks from 12 different players this season. Virginia Tech can get away with this due to their talented defensive secondary. The blitz schemes of VT will be matched against Auburn's highly effective offensive line that has only allowed 16 sacks in 12 games this season.
Auburn lacks an elite WR to match up against VT's top CBs, Eric Green and Jimmy Williams. However, Auburn's spread formations should create some mismatches with Auburn's 3rd and 4th WRs (Mix and Obomanu, depending on how they are lined up) against VT's FS and Nickel CB. The question is whether or not Campbell will have enough time in the pocket to take advantage of them.
Advantage: Virginia Tech
When Virginia Tech has the ball
Virginia Tech run offense vs. Auburn run defense
Auburn's 1st quarter offense (outscored opponents 123-19 in the quarter) has prevented most of their opponents from being able to commit to the running game. VT's best advantage in this game is their size on the offensive line that will face Auburn's speed on the defensive line. Auburn also has a very athletic LB corps led by Travis Williams and Antarrious Williams.
VT will have to try to run the ball against the middle of Auburn's defense with QB Bryan Randall and RB Mike Imoh. VT likes to use many Shotgun read-option running plays where Randall decides whether to give the ball to Imoh or keep it himself at the last moment. Virginia Tech needs to get at least 40 carries and 200 yards on the ground to have a good chance in this game.
Advantage: Auburn
Virginia Tech pass offense vs. Auburn pass defense
Virginia Tech's pass offense is based more on pure efficiency to complement the running game than it is on going down the field. QB Bryan Randall averages only 22.3 pass attemps per game, but has 19 TDs compared to only 7 INTs. Randall's athletic ability will be vital against a swarming Auburn defense that has 35 sacks on the season. VT's freshman WRs Eddie Royal and Josh Hyman have become progressively more effective weapons for Randall as the season has progressed.
The ability of Auburn's defensive front (28.5 of the 35 team sacks are from the DL) to generate pressure gives Auburn a distinct advantage in this aspect of the game. Auburn CB Carlos Rogers can erase either Royal or Hyman from the game. This allows Auburn's defensive coordinator, Gene Chizik, to roll coverage to help out CB Montavis Pitts against the other WR. Auburn's LBs are also quite skilled at TE and RB pass coverage, so VT will have problems passing the ball in this game.
Advantage: Auburn
Special Teams
Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer has a reputation for always having teams that are extraordinarily good on special teams. This year has been the exception, with an average punting and kick return game, and only one blocked punt all year. The lone bright spot is kicker Brandon Pace who is 21-for-26 on field goal attempts.
Auburn's special teams have been much more consistent this year, with Carnell Williams and Aromashodu 29th in the nation in kick returns, Williams averaging 11.7 yards per punt return, punter Kody Bliss landing 16/43 punts inside the opponent's 20 yard line, and John Vaughn going 9-for-12 on FGs since winning the job from Philip Yost, who is still a good kickoff man.
Advantage: Auburn
ESPN's Prediction: Auburn 27, Virginia Tech 17
Jason's Notes
The thing that worries me most about this game is the one-month layoff for both teams. The bowl games I've watched so far this season have illustrated just how sloppy some teams that are usually fundamentally sound can play. Auburn and Virginia Tech are pretty evenly matched talent-wise in most areas except the passing game, and I think Auburn has the coaching edge as well. That edge could be the difference between being ready and being rusty. As long as Auburn does not come out and play sloppy football (like they did in the Iron Bowl) with penalties, dropped passes, and turnovers. If the team has not been dwelling on the disappointment of not making the Orange Bowl, Auburn should win this game handily.
Jason's Prediction: Auburn 24, Virginia Tech 3
The game is on ABC at 7PM CST tonight.
As for any discussion of earning a piece of the National Title, it seems that Auburn needs to play a nearly flawless game, and the USC-Oklahoma game tomorrow night at 7 needs to be the Rusty Bowl, with a messy showing from both teams. If the Associated Press decides to give Auburn their collective vote for #1 to spite the BCS, as opposed to based on merit, it's hard to even attempt to analyze what will or will not impress them.
