Thursday, November 17, 2005
The Iron Bowl Preview
8th ranked Alabama (9-1, 6-1 SEC West) visits #11 Auburn (8-2, 6-1 SEC West) in this year's Iron Bowl. Auburn comes in looking for a 4th straight Iron Bowl win and an outside shot at winning the SEC West (if LSU loses to Ole Miss or Arkansas). Alabama comes to town following their tough overtime loss to LSU (gee, that sounds familiar) and in the middle of an offensive funk - Alabama has scored two offensive TDs in their last 4 SEC games. Still, Alabama's dominant defense has limited them to only 1 loss this season in spite of their anemic offense. Alabama comes into the game playing for an almost certain BCS bowl bid with a win, as the Fiesta Bowl has expressed interest in an Alabama-Notre Dame matchup.
Auburn comes in on the opposite side of things, with the best offense in the SEC (34.8 points per game, 454.9 yards per game), and a defense that was bashed pretty well in Georgia, but forced a key turnover when it was required. It seems likely that this game is likely to be decided when Auburn's offense takes the field against Alabama's defense. Alabama's defense is the best in the SEC in scoring defense (9.0 points allowed per game), and total defense (247.5 yards per game), so one can see that one side of the football features the matchup of Best in the SEC vs Best in the SEC.
Auburn has a negligible chance for a BCS Bowl game, unless LSU loses and gives Auburn a shot at the SEC Title.
On a unit-vs-unit level, there are some interesting matchups in this game.
-Auburn's offensive line vs. Alabama's defensive line in a matchup of team strengths. Auburn is considered to have the best offensive line in the SEC, and possibly in the nation. Alabama's excellent defense is mainly based in their talented front 7, led by MLB Freddie Roach. We saw what happened in the Georgia Tech game when Cox wasn't given time to throw, and the OL will have its hands full here. Fortunately, Auburn has enough weapons at WR and - dare I say it? - TE that Cox should be able to pick the Alabama secondary apart if he has enough time to step up in the pocket. Also, Alabama has not yet allowed any single RB to rush for 100 yards against them.
-Alabama's wide receivers vs. Auburn's defensive secondary in a matchup of team weaknesses. The Georgia game this past week showed some fairly significant holes that can be exploited in pass coverage. On the other hand, Alabama's WR corps has been completely inconsistent since the unit's top player, Tyrone Prothro, was injured in the Florida game (when they were up 31-3 in the 4th quarter, no less. Thanks Mr. Shula!), and the unit has been the main reason that Alabama has failed to score many offensive points.
-Auburn's defensive line vs. Alabama's offensive line in a matchup of team question marks. Auburn came into the year with a defensive line that was supposed to be one of the top units in the SEC. Despite this, the Tigers are only tied for 5th in the SEC in sacks recorded. Alabama's offense line, on the other hand, has been generally unimpressive, especially in recent games. The unit is 8th overall in the SEC in sacks allowed, and are looking up at superpowers such as Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in that category.
I've decided to ignore the usual individual matchip, as I personally haven't found them to be all that interesting, and the TV coverage crews are typically pretty good at highlighting key individuals as the game occurs. As such, I am going to switch to the team SEC ranks in various categories of note, as it gives you a better idea of the "big picture", and enough games have been played for the samples to not be too skewed by each teams' strength of schedule to this point.
Scoring Offense --- Scoring Defense
Auburn - 1st -------- Alabama - 1st
Alabama - 9th ----- Auburn - 3rd
Pass Offense -------- Pass Defense
Auburn - 4th ------- Alabama - 1st
Alabama - 8th ----- Auburn - 7th
Rushing Offense --- Rushing Defense
Auburn - 2nd ------- Alabama - 1st
Alabama - 4th ------ Auburn - 5th
Total Offense ------- Total Defense
Auburn - 1st --------- Alabama - 1st
Alabama - 7th ----- - Auburn - 5th
Anyone interested in more stats can find them at SECSports.com.
So, to get to the prediction, I can't help that come to the conclusion that when Auburn has the ball, the two teams look to be almost dead even in terms of talent and performance so far to this date. However, when Alabama has the ball, Auburn seems to have a marginal edge, and that edge may be enough, when combined with the home crowd, to turn the tide in the favor of the orange and blue.
Auburn 28, Alabama 24
War Damn Eagle
Auburn comes in on the opposite side of things, with the best offense in the SEC (34.8 points per game, 454.9 yards per game), and a defense that was bashed pretty well in Georgia, but forced a key turnover when it was required. It seems likely that this game is likely to be decided when Auburn's offense takes the field against Alabama's defense. Alabama's defense is the best in the SEC in scoring defense (9.0 points allowed per game), and total defense (247.5 yards per game), so one can see that one side of the football features the matchup of Best in the SEC vs Best in the SEC.
Auburn has a negligible chance for a BCS Bowl game, unless LSU loses and gives Auburn a shot at the SEC Title.
On a unit-vs-unit level, there are some interesting matchups in this game.
-Auburn's offensive line vs. Alabama's defensive line in a matchup of team strengths. Auburn is considered to have the best offensive line in the SEC, and possibly in the nation. Alabama's excellent defense is mainly based in their talented front 7, led by MLB Freddie Roach. We saw what happened in the Georgia Tech game when Cox wasn't given time to throw, and the OL will have its hands full here. Fortunately, Auburn has enough weapons at WR and - dare I say it? - TE that Cox should be able to pick the Alabama secondary apart if he has enough time to step up in the pocket. Also, Alabama has not yet allowed any single RB to rush for 100 yards against them.
-Alabama's wide receivers vs. Auburn's defensive secondary in a matchup of team weaknesses. The Georgia game this past week showed some fairly significant holes that can be exploited in pass coverage. On the other hand, Alabama's WR corps has been completely inconsistent since the unit's top player, Tyrone Prothro, was injured in the Florida game (when they were up 31-3 in the 4th quarter, no less. Thanks Mr. Shula!), and the unit has been the main reason that Alabama has failed to score many offensive points.
-Auburn's defensive line vs. Alabama's offensive line in a matchup of team question marks. Auburn came into the year with a defensive line that was supposed to be one of the top units in the SEC. Despite this, the Tigers are only tied for 5th in the SEC in sacks recorded. Alabama's offense line, on the other hand, has been generally unimpressive, especially in recent games. The unit is 8th overall in the SEC in sacks allowed, and are looking up at superpowers such as Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in that category.
I've decided to ignore the usual individual matchip, as I personally haven't found them to be all that interesting, and the TV coverage crews are typically pretty good at highlighting key individuals as the game occurs. As such, I am going to switch to the team SEC ranks in various categories of note, as it gives you a better idea of the "big picture", and enough games have been played for the samples to not be too skewed by each teams' strength of schedule to this point.
Scoring Offense --- Scoring Defense
Auburn - 1st -------- Alabama - 1st
Alabama - 9th ----- Auburn - 3rd
Pass Offense -------- Pass Defense
Auburn - 4th ------- Alabama - 1st
Alabama - 8th ----- Auburn - 7th
Rushing Offense --- Rushing Defense
Auburn - 2nd ------- Alabama - 1st
Alabama - 4th ------ Auburn - 5th
Total Offense ------- Total Defense
Auburn - 1st --------- Alabama - 1st
Alabama - 7th ----- - Auburn - 5th
Anyone interested in more stats can find them at SECSports.com.
So, to get to the prediction, I can't help that come to the conclusion that when Auburn has the ball, the two teams look to be almost dead even in terms of talent and performance so far to this date. However, when Alabama has the ball, Auburn seems to have a marginal edge, and that edge may be enough, when combined with the home crowd, to turn the tide in the favor of the orange and blue.
Auburn 28, Alabama 24
War Damn Eagle
Monday, November 14, 2005
The Iron Bowl Plans Post
So, the game is upon us. My preview post will come on Thursday when the matchup info is available. This is the personal gatherings/plans post. As of right now, as I understand it, Bubba and Nicole are going to the game, Mojo and Michele are tailgating in Auburn, Caroline, Rebecca, myself, and hopefully Will are watching the game at my house in Montgomery while Rebecca's husband, Justin, attends the game itself.
After the game (2:30PM, CBS), we are hoping to head to Auburn and catch up with the game attendees and tailgaters, and possibly take in a movie. Anyone else planning to be in the area? Post a comment if you are so that we can try to make a night of it in the post-game evening celebration!
After the game (2:30PM, CBS), we are hoping to head to Auburn and catch up with the game attendees and tailgaters, and possibly take in a movie. Anyone else planning to be in the area? Post a comment if you are so that we can try to make a night of it in the post-game evening celebration!
