Thursday, November 18, 2004
AU Preview: Alabama
ESPN is annoying me with this whole "no updates until noon" thing they do.
When Auburn has the Ball
Auburn run offense vs. Alabama run defense
Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown have both been named as semifinalists for the Doak Walker Award, given to the nation's top running back. They go against a tough Alabama run defense that has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry this season. Alabama LB Freddie Roach is one of the few players in the nation at his position who has the speed and ability to actually try to handle Ronnie Brown in coverage. Therefore, expect Auburn OC Borges to motion Brown out as a WR, to draw Roach away from the the center of the field where Auburn wants to run Cadillac.
Advantage: Auburn
Auburn pass offense vs. Alabama pass defense
Jason Campbell will have to be at his most efficient against a pass defense that has allowed the fewest yards in the nation. Alabama has enough experience in the secondary to blitz when needed, and Campbell must avoid turnovers to keep Auburn moving down the field.
Advantage: Auburn
When Alabama has the Ball
Alabama run offense vs. Auburn run defense
Auburn has relied on speed in its defensive front and safety support to stop opponents' running attacks this year. Auburn has also jumped out to early leads by outscoring opponents 109-9 in the 1st quarter. This is vital for this game, because Alabama RB Kenneth Darby has the power to punish Auburn's front 7 over the course of the game if Auburn cannot build up a sizeable lead.
Advantage: Alabama
Alabama pass defense vs. Auburn pass defense
Alabama is expected to try to take some chances down the field early in this game to try to open up the running game. QB Spencer Pennington will look to WR Matt Caddell, who has the size and ability to challenge Auburn's secondary for balls in the air. Alabama also needs some big plays to keep the crowd in the game to make it harder for Auburn to communicate.
Auburn DB Carlos Rogers' ability to shut down one side of the field from a passing standpoint allows Auburn to send safety help deep to the other side of the field, which could lead to turnovers if Pennington does not pick up the coverage in time.
Advantage: Auburn
Special Teams
Auburn's special teams have been fairly consistent, while Alabama's have been hot and cold. Alabama will run a kick back for a TD now and then, but will follow that up with muffed returns. Auburn's kickers have been fairly strong and fairly accurate, while Alabama's have been quite strong and only somewhat accurate.
Advantage: Draw
ESPN's Prediction: Auburn 17, Alabama 10
Jason's Notes
Wow, ESPN seems to have skipped over some of Alabama's problems in their analysis. To say that Alabama has been impotent from a passing standpoint would be a colossal understatement. While Alabama is 6th in scoring in the SEC (Auburn is 2nd), they are extremely unbalanced and dependent on their running game. Alabama leads the SEC in rushing, but is dead last in passing yards. Yes, that's right, they are worse than Vandy, Kentucky, and Mississippi State passing the ball.
Alabama is also facing some injuries, with QB Spencer Pennington not coming into the game at 100%. He suffered an injured shoulder and bruised ribs in last week's game against LSU.
I also disagree with their analysis of when Auburn has the ball. Jason Campbell's efficiency, and the Auburn WRs' seeming emergence as competent pass catchers this year gives Auburn an edge in the passing game. Also, Alabama's rush defense really IS good enough to significantly hold back Williams and Brown, so Auburn does not have as much of an advantage in the running game as ESPN projects, if there is an advantage at all.
That said, I believe that Auburn's defense should be able to smother Alabama's offense enough for Campbell to pick apart Alabama's defense to build an early lead. Once that happens, Brown and Williams should be able to move the ball on the ground just enough to wear down Alabama's defense through the course of the game. For BCS purposes, Auburn needs a convincing victory to keep making the case for being #2 to the human pollsters. I think that we will be able to do that.
Jason's Prediction: Auburn 27, Alabama 13
When Auburn has the Ball
Auburn run offense vs. Alabama run defense
Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown have both been named as semifinalists for the Doak Walker Award, given to the nation's top running back. They go against a tough Alabama run defense that has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry this season. Alabama LB Freddie Roach is one of the few players in the nation at his position who has the speed and ability to actually try to handle Ronnie Brown in coverage. Therefore, expect Auburn OC Borges to motion Brown out as a WR, to draw Roach away from the the center of the field where Auburn wants to run Cadillac.
Advantage: Auburn
Auburn pass offense vs. Alabama pass defense
Jason Campbell will have to be at his most efficient against a pass defense that has allowed the fewest yards in the nation. Alabama has enough experience in the secondary to blitz when needed, and Campbell must avoid turnovers to keep Auburn moving down the field.
Advantage: Auburn
When Alabama has the Ball
Alabama run offense vs. Auburn run defense
Auburn has relied on speed in its defensive front and safety support to stop opponents' running attacks this year. Auburn has also jumped out to early leads by outscoring opponents 109-9 in the 1st quarter. This is vital for this game, because Alabama RB Kenneth Darby has the power to punish Auburn's front 7 over the course of the game if Auburn cannot build up a sizeable lead.
Advantage: Alabama
Alabama pass defense vs. Auburn pass defense
Alabama is expected to try to take some chances down the field early in this game to try to open up the running game. QB Spencer Pennington will look to WR Matt Caddell, who has the size and ability to challenge Auburn's secondary for balls in the air. Alabama also needs some big plays to keep the crowd in the game to make it harder for Auburn to communicate.
Auburn DB Carlos Rogers' ability to shut down one side of the field from a passing standpoint allows Auburn to send safety help deep to the other side of the field, which could lead to turnovers if Pennington does not pick up the coverage in time.
Advantage: Auburn
Special Teams
Auburn's special teams have been fairly consistent, while Alabama's have been hot and cold. Alabama will run a kick back for a TD now and then, but will follow that up with muffed returns. Auburn's kickers have been fairly strong and fairly accurate, while Alabama's have been quite strong and only somewhat accurate.
Advantage: Draw
ESPN's Prediction: Auburn 17, Alabama 10
Jason's Notes
Wow, ESPN seems to have skipped over some of Alabama's problems in their analysis. To say that Alabama has been impotent from a passing standpoint would be a colossal understatement. While Alabama is 6th in scoring in the SEC (Auburn is 2nd), they are extremely unbalanced and dependent on their running game. Alabama leads the SEC in rushing, but is dead last in passing yards. Yes, that's right, they are worse than Vandy, Kentucky, and Mississippi State passing the ball.
Alabama is also facing some injuries, with QB Spencer Pennington not coming into the game at 100%. He suffered an injured shoulder and bruised ribs in last week's game against LSU.
I also disagree with their analysis of when Auburn has the ball. Jason Campbell's efficiency, and the Auburn WRs' seeming emergence as competent pass catchers this year gives Auburn an edge in the passing game. Also, Alabama's rush defense really IS good enough to significantly hold back Williams and Brown, so Auburn does not have as much of an advantage in the running game as ESPN projects, if there is an advantage at all.
That said, I believe that Auburn's defense should be able to smother Alabama's offense enough for Campbell to pick apart Alabama's defense to build an early lead. Once that happens, Brown and Williams should be able to move the ball on the ground just enough to wear down Alabama's defense through the course of the game. For BCS purposes, Auburn needs a convincing victory to keep making the case for being #2 to the human pollsters. I think that we will be able to do that.
Jason's Prediction: Auburn 27, Alabama 13
