Saturday, December 04, 2004
The only three letters that matter: S. E. C.
Congratulations to our 12-0 Auburn Tigers. WAR DAMN EAGLE.
Tuesday, November 30, 2004
AU Preview: SEC Championship
The SEC Championship vs. Tennessee will be aired on CBS at 5:00PM CST on Saturday, Dec 4. No one outside of a blindly optimistic fan could have honestly expected to see Auburn in this position 4 months ago. Regardless of what happens in the BCS, the excellent opportunity that Auburn has to win a SEC Title is something that we should all savor.
Particularly because we are about to get royally screwed over by the BCS, even if we beat Tennessee convincingly. Oklahoma's 35-0 win over Baylor two weeks ago, USC's dominating victory over Notre Dame this past week, and Auburn's pathetic 1st half showing in the Iron Bowl have combined to make it essentially impossible for Auburn to climb into the #2 BCS spot if all 3 teams win their final games. The media outrage at Oklahoma being ranked ahead of us, our greatest ally in the fight to win the hearts and minds of the coaches and AP voters, was silenced by the poor showing against Alabama combined with Oklahoma's convincing win over Baylor. Any doubt about USC being #1 ahead of both Oklahoma and Auburn was squashed with the crushing win over Notre Dame this past Saturday. We have lost ground to Oklahoma in both polls in each of the last 2 weeks, and Oklahoma still holds a dominant position in the computer polls that make up the remaining 1/3 of the BCS scoring system. Thus, aside from Oklahoma only beating Colorado 3-0 with 7 turnovers, combined with Auburn beating Tennessee by 117 points, we're not going to the Orange Bowl if Oklahoma and USC win their final games.
Basically, we are not just Auburn fans this weekend. We are Auburn/UCLA/Colorado fans this weekend. Let us hope that USC and/or Oklahoma pull a 2004 New York Yankees in their final matchups.
ESPN's Take
When Tennessee has the Ball
Tennessee run offense vs. Auburn run defense
This is the only aspect of the game where Tennessee has the edge. The Tigers' only weakness is a lack of size in the front 7 defenders. If Tennessee can keep the game close, or take a lead, their RB tandem of Gerald Riggs, Jr. and Cedric Houston are capable of wearing down Auburn's defensive front.
Advantage: Tennessee
Tennessee pass offense vs. Auburn pass defense
QB Rick Clausen will have to make some plays to make Junior Rosegreen back off out of run support early in the game. Clausen moved the football well in the last two weeks, but threw more INTs than TDs (5-4) against Vandy and Kentucky, the SEC's worst defenses. Gene Chizik should be able to throw some schemes on the field to confuse Clausen and force him into some mistakes. It helps that DEs Stanley McGlover and Quentin Groves have combined for 15 sacks this season, making themselves one of the more dangerous pass-rushing pairs in the country. Tennessee's offensive line has done a decent job of protecting their QBs so far this year, but they should be overmatched by the speed of Auburn's defense.
Advantage: Auburn
When Auburn has the Ball
Auburn run offense vs. Tennessee run defense
Williams and Brown against a defense that is young and has had some problems tacking. Hmmmm. Also, Tennessee can't stack up against the run due to Jason Campbell's efficiency, and breakdowns in the secondary that have occured in recent weeks. Basically, Tennessee's defense coordinator has to guess right about whether to play against the run or pass on any particular play, as they can't adjust for both options at once. That said, Tennessee's run defense, ranked 25th in the nation, has improved since the teams last met. It still won't be good enough.
Advantage: Auburn
Auburn pass offense vs. Tennessee pass defense
Tennessee has been completely incapable of generating any kind of a pass rush this season, which has left their freshman CBs out to dry. 64 points to Vandy and Kentucky pretty much covers it. Don't be surprised to see Campbell take some deep chances early in the game. Also, Campbell will see some mismatches on short passes to Brown or Williams, as Tennessee only has one LB (Kevin Burnett) who is really reliable in coverage. Whoever he isn't covering on a particular play should be an attractive option for Jason.
The only downside to Auburn's passing options in this game is that Cooper Wallace hasn't been executed yet. (ok, maybe ESPN didn't mention this)
Advantage: Auburn
Special Teams
Tennessee P Dustin Colquitt is arguably the best punter in that nation. However, Auburn has the edge on kick returns (AU - 10th in nation, UT - 103rd, punt returns (AU - 21st, UT - 102nd), and FG kicking (AU's John Vaughn - 8 of 11, UT's James Wilhoit - 9 for 15).
Advantage: Auburn
ESPN's Prediction: Auburn 33, Tennessee 17
Jason's Notes
Auburn has the definite edge going into this game. Tennessee is down to their 3rd string QB, Claussen, and has only narrowly sneaked past Vanderbilt and Kentucky in their previous 2 games. Auburn has had a week off to prepare for the game. Georgia knows how much fun Auburn can be to deal with after an off week. Auburn's top scoring defense in the nation (only allowing 9.6 points per game) should be able to shut down Tennessee's offense handily. Tennessee has a strong rushing attack, but we stopped them once, and there is little reason to believe that we cannot do so again. Tennessee's defense has struggled lately, allowing a combined 64 points in their last two games...to KENTUCKY and VANDY. On paper, this seems to be a great opportunity for Auburn to run up the score to try and impress the voters.
The x-factors in this game are the intangibles. Tennessee will be out for revenge for being embarassed at home earlier this season. Auburn may be looking ahead to a BCS bowl, and paying more attention to the polls than to their upcoming opponent. It is incredibly difficult to beat the same opponent twice in college football, due to the experienced gained from the previous meeting. Will Auburn make special-ed decisions on offense to start the game (running backwards, for example) as we did against Alabama? Any of these things could give Tennessee the ability to win this game.
ESPN's prediction is particularly noteworthy, as they tend to not predict large margins of victory. The fact that they predict an Auburn win by 16 points means that the actual margin SHOULD be even larger. I just can't see our defense giving up more than 1 TD against such a one-dimensional offense.
Jason's Prediction: Auburn 38, Tennessee 10
Programming Note: The USC-UCLA game is at 3:30PM CST on ABC. The Oklahoma-Colorado game is at 7PM CST on ABC. Yes, that means both will overlap at least some of the Auburn game.
Particularly because we are about to get royally screwed over by the BCS, even if we beat Tennessee convincingly. Oklahoma's 35-0 win over Baylor two weeks ago, USC's dominating victory over Notre Dame this past week, and Auburn's pathetic 1st half showing in the Iron Bowl have combined to make it essentially impossible for Auburn to climb into the #2 BCS spot if all 3 teams win their final games. The media outrage at Oklahoma being ranked ahead of us, our greatest ally in the fight to win the hearts and minds of the coaches and AP voters, was silenced by the poor showing against Alabama combined with Oklahoma's convincing win over Baylor. Any doubt about USC being #1 ahead of both Oklahoma and Auburn was squashed with the crushing win over Notre Dame this past Saturday. We have lost ground to Oklahoma in both polls in each of the last 2 weeks, and Oklahoma still holds a dominant position in the computer polls that make up the remaining 1/3 of the BCS scoring system. Thus, aside from Oklahoma only beating Colorado 3-0 with 7 turnovers, combined with Auburn beating Tennessee by 117 points, we're not going to the Orange Bowl if Oklahoma and USC win their final games.
Basically, we are not just Auburn fans this weekend. We are Auburn/UCLA/Colorado fans this weekend. Let us hope that USC and/or Oklahoma pull a 2004 New York Yankees in their final matchups.
ESPN's Take
When Tennessee has the Ball
Tennessee run offense vs. Auburn run defense
This is the only aspect of the game where Tennessee has the edge. The Tigers' only weakness is a lack of size in the front 7 defenders. If Tennessee can keep the game close, or take a lead, their RB tandem of Gerald Riggs, Jr. and Cedric Houston are capable of wearing down Auburn's defensive front.
Advantage: Tennessee
Tennessee pass offense vs. Auburn pass defense
QB Rick Clausen will have to make some plays to make Junior Rosegreen back off out of run support early in the game. Clausen moved the football well in the last two weeks, but threw more INTs than TDs (5-4) against Vandy and Kentucky, the SEC's worst defenses. Gene Chizik should be able to throw some schemes on the field to confuse Clausen and force him into some mistakes. It helps that DEs Stanley McGlover and Quentin Groves have combined for 15 sacks this season, making themselves one of the more dangerous pass-rushing pairs in the country. Tennessee's offensive line has done a decent job of protecting their QBs so far this year, but they should be overmatched by the speed of Auburn's defense.
Advantage: Auburn
When Auburn has the Ball
Auburn run offense vs. Tennessee run defense
Williams and Brown against a defense that is young and has had some problems tacking. Hmmmm. Also, Tennessee can't stack up against the run due to Jason Campbell's efficiency, and breakdowns in the secondary that have occured in recent weeks. Basically, Tennessee's defense coordinator has to guess right about whether to play against the run or pass on any particular play, as they can't adjust for both options at once. That said, Tennessee's run defense, ranked 25th in the nation, has improved since the teams last met. It still won't be good enough.
Advantage: Auburn
Auburn pass offense vs. Tennessee pass defense
Tennessee has been completely incapable of generating any kind of a pass rush this season, which has left their freshman CBs out to dry. 64 points to Vandy and Kentucky pretty much covers it. Don't be surprised to see Campbell take some deep chances early in the game. Also, Campbell will see some mismatches on short passes to Brown or Williams, as Tennessee only has one LB (Kevin Burnett) who is really reliable in coverage. Whoever he isn't covering on a particular play should be an attractive option for Jason.
The only downside to Auburn's passing options in this game is that Cooper Wallace hasn't been executed yet. (ok, maybe ESPN didn't mention this)
Advantage: Auburn
Special Teams
Tennessee P Dustin Colquitt is arguably the best punter in that nation. However, Auburn has the edge on kick returns (AU - 10th in nation, UT - 103rd, punt returns (AU - 21st, UT - 102nd), and FG kicking (AU's John Vaughn - 8 of 11, UT's James Wilhoit - 9 for 15).
Advantage: Auburn
ESPN's Prediction: Auburn 33, Tennessee 17
Jason's Notes
Auburn has the definite edge going into this game. Tennessee is down to their 3rd string QB, Claussen, and has only narrowly sneaked past Vanderbilt and Kentucky in their previous 2 games. Auburn has had a week off to prepare for the game. Georgia knows how much fun Auburn can be to deal with after an off week. Auburn's top scoring defense in the nation (only allowing 9.6 points per game) should be able to shut down Tennessee's offense handily. Tennessee has a strong rushing attack, but we stopped them once, and there is little reason to believe that we cannot do so again. Tennessee's defense has struggled lately, allowing a combined 64 points in their last two games...to KENTUCKY and VANDY. On paper, this seems to be a great opportunity for Auburn to run up the score to try and impress the voters.
The x-factors in this game are the intangibles. Tennessee will be out for revenge for being embarassed at home earlier this season. Auburn may be looking ahead to a BCS bowl, and paying more attention to the polls than to their upcoming opponent. It is incredibly difficult to beat the same opponent twice in college football, due to the experienced gained from the previous meeting. Will Auburn make special-ed decisions on offense to start the game (running backwards, for example) as we did against Alabama? Any of these things could give Tennessee the ability to win this game.
ESPN's prediction is particularly noteworthy, as they tend to not predict large margins of victory. The fact that they predict an Auburn win by 16 points means that the actual margin SHOULD be even larger. I just can't see our defense giving up more than 1 TD against such a one-dimensional offense.
Jason's Prediction: Auburn 38, Tennessee 10
Programming Note: The USC-UCLA game is at 3:30PM CST on ABC. The Oklahoma-Colorado game is at 7PM CST on ABC. Yes, that means both will overlap at least some of the Auburn game.
