Friday, October 21, 2005
AU Preview: LSU
The #16 Auburn Tigers (5-1, 3-0 SEC) face their first ranked opponent so far this year on Saturday, in their 2nd road game of the season, at Baton Rouge. The game is at 6:45 Central on ESPN. Auburn is trying to tie a school record of 14 straight SEC wins (1993-94) this weekend, but is facing quite a challenge against the #7 LSU Tigers (4-1, 1-1 SEC). The home team has won the last 5 games between the two teams. A win in this game for Auburn would essentially narrow the SEC West fight to two teams - Auburn and Alabama.
The two teams are similar in their offensive statistics, and Auburn's slight edge in scoring, total offense, and rushing offense can partly be attributed to the cakewalk schedule they have played so far compared to LSU (who have already played both Florida and Tennessee this year). Here are 3 key matchups highlighted by ESPN.com
1. Auburn FB Jake Slaughter vs. LSU OLB's Ali Highsmith and Cameron Vaughn
Auburn has been winning since the Georgia Tech game due largely to a lack of turnovers since the opener, which has partly been a result of getting the running game going. Regardless of which of Auburn's many RBs get the most carries on Sautrday, FB Jake Slaughter may be the key to their success, as he is responsible fortrying to block LSU's OLBs, since Auburn's offensive line is likely to have more than enough to handle against LSU's excellent defensive line.
2. LSU WR Dwayne Bowe vs. Auburn CB Patrick Lee
Lee is a talented young cornerback who has earned his starting job after beginning the season as a sub-package cornerback. However, he is still inexperienced and gives up a good deal of size to LSU's playmaking WR Bowe. QB JaMarcus Russell has developed a terrific rapport with Bowe, who leads LSU with 13 receptions for 266 yards and four touchdowns. If Russell can recognize man coverage on the perimeter when he sees it and can put the ball up for grabs on sideline and/or vertical routes, Bowe has the size and leaping advantages to consistently win the jump ball over Lee.
3. LSU RB Joseph Addai vs. Auburn Linebackers
Addai has emerged as LSU's premier ball carrier following Alley Brousard's season-ending knee injury, and he has now rushed for 537 yards and six touchdowns on 105 carries through the first five games of this season. Because of the inconsistency of Russell and the passing attack, it is critical that Addai carries a heavy load and is able to move the chains on the ground for LSU in this game. His challenge, however, will be to maintain a high level of production against a stout Auburn run defense that is anchored by three tremendously athletic linebackers in Travis Williams, Antarrious Williams and Karibi Dede. Addai won't be able to outrun this group but he does have the size to wear the smallish trio down over the course of four quarters.
Jason's Notes
All these matchups are nice, but ultimately, it falls on Brandon Cox to win this game for Auburn. If he has a 1st half like the one he had in Arkansas, with 2 INTs and 0TDs, Auburn may get blown out in this game. If he plays more like the 3TD, 0INT QB we saw (or not, feh) in the 2nd half against Arkansas, Auburn has a good shot to pull off the upset on the road. Auburn's offensive line must give him enough time to throw against a tough LSU defensive line. It seems likely that we may be able to tell who will win this game based largely on who wins the battle up front when Auburn has the ball.
Unfortunately, I suspect that we will find out that Cox needs a bit more seasoning before he can pull off a win in one of the toughest stadiums to play in in the country, against a team that appears to have the edge in raw talent over Auburn. I only see key turnovers from LSU giving Auburn a real shot to win the game, and I don't think there will be enough of them.
Jason's Prediction: LSU 28, Auburn 17
The two teams are similar in their offensive statistics, and Auburn's slight edge in scoring, total offense, and rushing offense can partly be attributed to the cakewalk schedule they have played so far compared to LSU (who have already played both Florida and Tennessee this year). Here are 3 key matchups highlighted by ESPN.com
1. Auburn FB Jake Slaughter vs. LSU OLB's Ali Highsmith and Cameron Vaughn
Auburn has been winning since the Georgia Tech game due largely to a lack of turnovers since the opener, which has partly been a result of getting the running game going. Regardless of which of Auburn's many RBs get the most carries on Sautrday, FB Jake Slaughter may be the key to their success, as he is responsible fortrying to block LSU's OLBs, since Auburn's offensive line is likely to have more than enough to handle against LSU's excellent defensive line.
2. LSU WR Dwayne Bowe vs. Auburn CB Patrick Lee
Lee is a talented young cornerback who has earned his starting job after beginning the season as a sub-package cornerback. However, he is still inexperienced and gives up a good deal of size to LSU's playmaking WR Bowe. QB JaMarcus Russell has developed a terrific rapport with Bowe, who leads LSU with 13 receptions for 266 yards and four touchdowns. If Russell can recognize man coverage on the perimeter when he sees it and can put the ball up for grabs on sideline and/or vertical routes, Bowe has the size and leaping advantages to consistently win the jump ball over Lee.
3. LSU RB Joseph Addai vs. Auburn Linebackers
Addai has emerged as LSU's premier ball carrier following Alley Brousard's season-ending knee injury, and he has now rushed for 537 yards and six touchdowns on 105 carries through the first five games of this season. Because of the inconsistency of Russell and the passing attack, it is critical that Addai carries a heavy load and is able to move the chains on the ground for LSU in this game. His challenge, however, will be to maintain a high level of production against a stout Auburn run defense that is anchored by three tremendously athletic linebackers in Travis Williams, Antarrious Williams and Karibi Dede. Addai won't be able to outrun this group but he does have the size to wear the smallish trio down over the course of four quarters.
Jason's Notes
All these matchups are nice, but ultimately, it falls on Brandon Cox to win this game for Auburn. If he has a 1st half like the one he had in Arkansas, with 2 INTs and 0TDs, Auburn may get blown out in this game. If he plays more like the 3TD, 0INT QB we saw (or not, feh) in the 2nd half against Arkansas, Auburn has a good shot to pull off the upset on the road. Auburn's offensive line must give him enough time to throw against a tough LSU defensive line. It seems likely that we may be able to tell who will win this game based largely on who wins the battle up front when Auburn has the ball.
Unfortunately, I suspect that we will find out that Cox needs a bit more seasoning before he can pull off a win in one of the toughest stadiums to play in in the country, against a team that appears to have the edge in raw talent over Auburn. I only see key turnovers from LSU giving Auburn a real shot to win the game, and I don't think there will be enough of them.
Jason's Prediction: LSU 28, Auburn 17
